C2 Method / Week 10 AFL!

[SERocks]

Hello...we are back. This week I am only going to post the home/away stats isolated picks here. I am still keeping track of the overall stats picks as well, but since they kinda suck, no sense posting them!

Here are this week's picks and some commentary.

C2 Advantage Home/Away Stats Isolated picks this week are:

New Orleans -11
Tampa Bay Pick 'Em
New York -7
Colorado -6.5
San Jose -14.5
Los Angeles +9.5
Philadelphia -6
Grand Rapids Pick 'Em

Lines are as of the time I put the post up.

These will be my picks this week. I am going to post them now, and I will post again later once I have actually made plays giving you exactly what I got when I bet the game.

Only one Dog this week:

Los Angeles +9.5 I will play the ML for sure, maybe split the bet 50/50.

Favorites this week (Home Favorites Only):

Tampa Bay Pick 'Em
New York -7
Colorado -6.5
San Jose -14.5
Grand Rapids Pick 'Em

Not sure how I am going to play these. The best way to play Favorites is for game. I will likely do that with New York and Colorado. San Jose for game is probably going to be something like lay $100 to win $10 or equally as insane, so I might just pass on that game altogether. See how I am feeling Friday morning when I place the wagers.

Now...this is interesting. Away Favorites in 2004 (WK 6 through WK 17) were 8-10 ATS and 10-8 SU. This is why I don't normally play Away Favorites. In 2005 WK 8-10 they are 3-2 ATS and 4-1 SU!!!! So things are looking better for Away Favorites SU in 2005. Couple this with another fact I just looked up from my worksheets and I might play the away favorite this week. That fact is when looking at OVERALL STATS and Home/Away STATS when the same team is picked by both methods, in 2004 Away Favorites won SU 10-7 (59%).

So...our Away Favorite this week (picked both by Overall and Home/Away) is Philadelphia. Given that Away Favs are winning more this year SU and 59% clip when picked by both methods of examining the stats, Philadelphia is likely a play for game. Line right now is -6, so the ML won't be killer probably. We see on Friday I guess.

Anyway, those are the plays this week. I will post on Friday when I actually put down some coin.

-SERocks

 

[Mistermj]

Thanks SERocks

I look forward to your picks...(especially after the last two weeks success) and its nice not having to worry about jumping on the opening lines. I find that rather stressful and don't like the fact that I have to try to make the right pick and guess if the opening line is a good value too.

Its much nicer just waiting for the lines to settle out later in the week and go with your C2 selections, for me anyway. I hope you continue having success this way.

Its an enjoyable system to follow so far...and it seems you have it down to a very consistent approach based on stats.

Good luck again!

 

[MathProf]

Congrats on your great performance last week!
This week, some lines actually moving in our favor!

When you and AFLGuru agree I suspect it is high probability
winner. I'm going to track it.

 

[SERocks]

Home Favorites:

The home favorites in 2004 were 26-22-1 (54%) ATS and 35-14-0 (71%) SU. So this indicates a very strong incentive to playing these for game. I just simply cannot get over the large negative vig factor though in some of these games, so I split a few of these bets, SU and ATS. That, based on the stats above is a mistake, but I did it anyway. For my recordkeeping, where a team is a pick 'em, I treat them as home favorites.

Spread Chicago Rush vs New York Dragons (-6.5) for Game -108 (+54 to win +50)

Money Chicago Rush vs New York Dragons for Game -220 (-50 to win 22.75)

Spread Georgia Force vs Tampa Bay Storm (+0) for Game -112 (-112 to win 100)

Spread Nashville Kats vs Grand Rapids Rampage (+0) for Game -103 (-103 to win 100)

Spread Las Vegas Gladiators vs Colorado Crush (-6) for Game -105 (-52.50 to win 50)

Money Las Vegas Gladiators vs Colorado Crush for Game -205 (-50 to win 24.40)

Away Dogs:

Away dogs were 13-5-0 (72%) ATS and 12-6-0 (67%) SU in 2004. I prefer to play these SU as the ML juice is really nice when they hit. With a 9.5 point spread on this game though, I decided to split the bet.

Spread Los Angeles Avengers (+9.5) vs Orlando Predators for Game -105 (-52.50 to win +50)

MoneyLine Los Angeles Avengers vs Orlando Predators for Game +290 (-50 to win +145)

Away Favorites:

Away Favorites are a dangerous group. In 2004 they were 9-10-1 (47%) ATS and 10-10-0 (50%) SU. Yes, these numbers are different than I posted the other day, I found a mistake in how I treated a game, but anyway, point is that Away Favorites are dangerous plays. However, in going over the worksheet, I checked all categories if I played them as 7.5 point teasers. This is what I found.

Away Favs: 9-10-1 47% ATS As Teaser: 16-4-0 80%
Away Dogs: 13-5-0 72% ATS As Teaser: 14-4-0 77%
Home Dogs: 14-6-0 70% ATS As Teaser: 16-4-0 80%
Home Favs: 26-22-1 54% ATS As Teaser: 35-14-0 71%

Those numbers are accurate give or take a game. I did a quick spot check kind of a thing, so don't hold me to those exact numbers, but the concept is what I was after and it proved the concept. Away Favorites can be played as Teaser bets with a very good chance of success. This week there are two away favorites. I was not planning on playing New Orleans at all, but I did want to play Philly. (See post above this for the explanation of why Philly was in play.) With this teaser strategy, I am playing both in a 2 Tm 7.5 point teaser.

San Jose also scares me as a Home Fav at -14.5, so I did not play San Jose, but wanted a little action on them, so I wrapped them up in a 2 Tm 7.5 teaser as well. Since the idea is to increase the chance to win the teaser, I took LA as the other side. LA being an Away Dog with a 65% chance to win SU and 72% chance to win ATS and a 77% chance to win as a 7.5 point teaser, it seemed like a good team to wrap up with San Jose.

Teaser FB Arena 2 Tm 7.5 Pt (-55 to win +50)

(Spread) Los Angeles Avengers (+17) vs Orlando Predators for Game (-105)
(Spread) Arizona Rattlers vs San Jose Sabercats (-7) for Game (-103)

Teaser FB Arena 2 Tm 7.5 Pt (-55 to win +50)

(Spread) No Voodoo (-2.5) vs Aus Wranglers for Game (-105)
(Spread) Phi Soul (+2.5) vs Cob Destroyers for Game (-105)

There you have it....my picks for the week. Good Luck everyone!


-SERocks

 

[AFLGuru]

Very interesting... I'm keeping a close eye on this. Beware teasers though... I just don't like playing them very often. Just from watching the game, it seems especially with the big dogs that they either cover handlely and come close to winning the game, or just get blown to bits, especially when that dog is Columbus, Austin, or Grand Rapids. Hope the Preds crush the Avengers, as they definitely don't have a 65% chance of winning the game outright... not in Orlando. I'd give them about a 20% chance of winning the game at best. Keeping it close is a different story. But I'd seriously drop them at 20%, probably less. That and I hope my Preds win by 50 every week

Regardless, all the best to you.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[SERocks]

Spread Chicago Rush vs New York Dragons (-6.5) for Game -108 (-54 to win +50) Lost<!--emo&h43r:--><!--endemo-->

Money Chicago Rush vs New York Dragons for Game -220 (-50 to win 22.75) Lost<!--emo&h43r:--><!--endemo-->

Spread Georgia Force vs Tampa Bay Storm (+0) for Game -112 (-112 to win 100) Won<!--endemo-->

Spread Nashville Kats vs Grand Rapids Rampage (+0) for Game -103 (-103 to win 100) Lost<!--endemo-->

Spread Las Vegas Gladiators vs Colorado Crush (-6) for Game -105 (-52.50 to win 50) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->

Money Las Vegas Gladiators vs Colorado Crush for Game -205 (-50 to win 24.40) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->

Spread Los Angeles Avengers (+9.5) vs Orlando Predators for Game -105 (-52.50 to win +50) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->

MoneyLine Los Angeles Avengers vs Orlando Predators for Game +290 (-50 to win +145) Lost<!--emo&h43r:--><!--endemo-->

Teaser FB Arena 2 Tm 7.5 Pt (-55 to win +50) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->

(Spread) Los Angeles Avengers (+17) vs Orlando Predators for Game (-105) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->
(Spread) Arizona Rattlers vs San Jose Sabercats (-7) for Game (-103) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->


Teaser FB Arena 2 Tm 7.5 Pt (-55 to win +50) Lost<!--emo&h43r:--><!--endemo-->

(Spread) No Voodoo (-2.5) vs Aus Wranglers for Game (-105) Lost<!--endemo-->
(Spread) Phi Soul (+2.5) vs Cob Destroyers for Game (-105) Won<!--emo&--><!--endemo-->


Overall, not a great week, but did not get hurt too bad. If LA could have just held on. That stupid scoreboard hanging down in the arena may have cost them the game....talk about homefield advantage!!!! Nuts.


Record: 5-5
Units: -.376


-SERocks